News from Project B03

As part of the B03 survey in Mexico by the Cologne project team, we prepared a pre-analysis plan and registered it with EGAP.

This possibility is used by more and more scientists to make experimental and academic work more transparent.

The Pre-Analysis Plan of the B03 project can be downloaded here.

Abstract:

We promote the argument that countries' economic structural interdependence based on trade relationships influence individual preferences for social policy programs. When a central trading partner raises barriers in the form of increased tolls and tariffs it will increase the perception of labor market vulnerability and economic risk. Subsequently, increased risk perception should fuel different demands for different types of social policy reforms. Labor market segmentation into formal and informal workers thereby moderates the impact of risk. Our analysis contains two steps: the impact of changing trade relationships on individual economic risk perception, and, subsequently, the effect of risk on social policy preferences. To investigate the first part of the argument, we use a vignette experiment that primes individuals about hazards of changes in current trade relationships between Mexico and the U.S.. Next, we analyze how risk perception influences social policy preferences and how far different redistribution coalitions arise. As workers embedded in notoriously permeable labor markets not only frequently switch the sector of employment, but also share households with a spouse who works e. g. in the informal sector, social policy preferences cannot be simply derived from income level. Using a conjoint experiment that models the trade-off between different social policies and different degrees of scope, level, and who pays for it, allows to study the effect of increased risk perception and employment sector on policy preferences in a more nuanced way. We study our argument with an experimental survey for the case of Mexico in 2018.


Contact:
Dr. Sarah Berens
CRC 1342: Global Dynamics of Social Policy, Cologne Center for Comparative Politics
Herbert-Lewin-Str. 2
50931 Köln
Phone: +49 221 470-2853
E-Mail: sarah.berens@uni-koeln.de

Franziska Deeg
CRC 1342: Global Dynamics of Social Policy, Cologne Center for Comparative Politics
Herbert-Lewin-Str. 2
50931 Köln
Phone: +49 221 470-2853
E-Mail: fdeeg@uni-koeln.de

Franziska Deeg and Leticia Juarez
Franziska Deeg and Leticia Juarez
Franziska Deeg spent two months in Mexico City for project B03 in order to coordinate the final preparations and the conduct of the interviews on site.

In the Cologne part of project B03, two surveys will be conducted - one in Mexico and one in Brazil - in order to gain insights into the connection between trade and social policy at the micro level. The first survey in Mexico was completed on 21 November: a milestone for the B03 project team. Since June, the study has been prepared in Cologne and finally implemented from September to November by PhD student Franziska Deeg on site and with the active support of the Cologne team. The time on site in Mexico City was particularly labour-intensive, as the questionnaire still had to be translated and the pre-tests had to be completed. In addition, interviewer trainings were conducted.

For the preparation and final implementation of the survey, there was a lively exchange between Ms. Deeg and Beltran, Juarez y Asociados (BGC), the public opinion research institute commissioned to collect the data. Special attention was paid to a conceptually correct translation of the questionnaire, which was also adapted to the Mexican case on social policy. This was a particular challenge as the social system in Mexico is highly fragmented. It was also possible for the team to conduct 60 pre-test interviews in the two countries selected for the study (Puebla and Queretaro). This allowed initial insights into the data to be gained and the questionnaire to be further adapted. The main focus here was on the comprehensibility of the questions, and especially the questions on social policy could be further improved by the experience gained in the pre-test.

Before the final data collection, the questionnaire was thoroughly reviewed in a training session with all interviewers. Through the training, interviewer effects could be greatly reduced and special features of the survey could be addressed, such as the conjoint.

Franziska Deeg was able to combine her stay in Mexico City with a research visit to the Colegio de Mexico (Colmex), one of the best universities in Latin America. She was able to benefit from the university's rich lecture programme, learn more about the numerous research activities at Colmex and collaborate with Dr. Melina Altamirano, who strongly supported the implementation of the study with her know-how.

Thanks to the efficient work of the entire team and the seven-week stay in MExiko, the survey was successfully implemented. The data is now available and ready for analysis.


Contact:
Franziska Deeg
CRC 1342: Global Dynamics of Social Policy, Cologne Center for Comparative Politics
Herbert-Lewin-Str. 2
50931 Köln
Phone: +49 221 470-2853
E-Mail: fdeeg@uni-koeln.de