How can we explain cases in which effective social policies become neglected by policymakers and citizens alike? Highly effective policies reduce the visibility of the social problems they address (e.g., poverty, poor health, inequality), thereby creating the illusion that the problem has been solved. As a result, beneficiaries may become less politically active, as the urgency that once motivated mobilization declines, and voters may similarly shift their attention toward other issues. These dynamics, in turn, create opportunities for opponents (e.g., austerity advocates, science skeptics) to argue that the policy is no longer necessary or has become too costly. Political support for a social policy may therefore erode because it succeeded, not because it failed. This study investigates this curse of highly effective social policies by developing a theoretical model that captures these self-undermining dynamics and generates several unintuitive predictions about the relationship between a policy’s effectiveness and the temporal evolution of public support and funding.

This paper presents the results of a historical research project examining the diffusion of commercial insurance in non-Western countries. It focuses on sub-Saharan Africa, particularly East and West African countries, from the late colonial period to the early decades of independence (1940s–1980s). During the colonial era, insurance was primarily available to Western communities and local elites. After independence, the development of insurance markets depended on political and socio-economic conditions. In socialist countries such as Tanzania and Ghana, the insurance industry was nationalised and campaigns were launched for its 'Africanisation', but these countries still depended on Western expertise and reinsurance. In Western-oriented countries such as Kenya and Nigeria, markets were driven by competition between African and European companies. The growth of commercial insurance markets, especially life insurance, was also limited by the social welfare programmes of independent African governments. This paper discusses the factors that have shaped the development of African insurance markets and highlights the role of regional and international organisations (e.g. UNCTAD).